Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Killing of Bin Laden is a Function of the departure of Mubarak

Amazing feeling to being successful to avoid following news for a few days (I wouldn’t claim all the credit to will power, but to also too much procrastination that kept me heavily back logged on tasks). Almost a week that I haven't followed news or went on Facebook, I am now officially cured from the Facebook syndrome :). I guess the killing of Bin Laden made it past my avoidance and came to me on the radio. Upon hearing the news and then checking briefly some editorials and articles about the event a few things seem to hit me.

  1. If you want to hide you don't go and live in a building totally odd within its local and expect to go unnoticed. It seemed extremely odd for the most notorious (a claim of the USA) extremist in the world to that. To me finding it would be as easy as finding a white Caucasian in West Africa, and that it seemed that his whereabouts were known for a while.
  2. I honest think that the whole halo about Bin Laden was a making of the USA policy, the continuous need for a "bad guy" figure to justify that the USA is the "good cowboy" to save the day and give it reason (mostly to Americans) to go an purse this "bad guy" and save the world (just like the movies). So the USA needed Bin Laden as much as he needed it to explain himself and his beliefs.
  3. The proximity of the events to the spring of change storming through the Middle East seemed too much of a coincidence. The seemed to be related together and not independent. Specifically the fall of Mubarak (more so that Bin Ali) and how the outlook to the global future is somewhat changing.

I couldn't help correlating the events.

As far as I see it, the spring of change has taken so many by surprise, and they find themselves needing to catch up. That means taking different policies and positions to mitigate the situation. I also think that policy makers in the USA as not as stupid as the once-leaders of the Arab world, hoping that change would go away on its own and then being surprised that it is too late for actions.

Putting them together I believe that the USA has decided to change its policy in the Middle east to avoid more frustration of the people in the Arab world that would hinder their engagement and involvement in the region. They need to go down a different path and that has prerequisites.

If the foreign policy is to change with organizations like Hamas, the USA public wouldn't accept it while Bin Laden is still there. His time is up and they need to deliver on this item to be able to have flexibly to act differently, so he had to go. Amazingly, Mubarak was the corner stone that kept Bin Laden alive.

I would add, that although I think the USA will change its policy with nations in the region beyond Israel, I never would claim that they would be on our side. They would still be with the Israel camp on many fronts, and ultimately, but they would avoid annoying the Arabs in the region and hence give them an opportunity to win some minds back. The policy change needs us to be weary of it, but make the most out of this change.

My 2 cents

2 comments:

  1. sound explanation of the timing and the easy hunt!

    ReplyDelete
  2. This deserves to be published in some newspaper. I liked the analysis so much. jAk for the nice article

    ReplyDelete